A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
